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12: Transportation, KM 1). For example, by the end of the century, annual oyster harvests in the Southeast are projected to decline between 20% (19%22%) under a lower scenario (RCP4.5) and 46% (44%48%) under a higher scenario (RCP8.5), leading to projected price increases of 48% (RCP4.5) to 140% (RCP8.5).35 Projected warming ocean temperatures, sea level rise, and ocean and coastal acidification are raising concern over future harvests (Ch. High tide flooding is now posing daily risks to businesses, neighborhoods, infrastructure, transportation, and ecosystems in the Southeast.1,2. https://www.ncbroadband.gov/connectingnc/broadband-adoption. Barbier, E. B., S. D. Hacker, C. Kennedy, E. W. Koch, A. C. Stier, and B. R. Silliman, 2011: The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services. 1 U.S. Census Bureau. Kelleway, J. J., K. Cavanaugh, K. Rogers, I. C. Feller, E. Ens, C. Doughty, and N. Saintilan, 2017: Review of the ecosystem service implications of mangrove encroachment into salt marshes. Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley, Eds. NC Rural Health Research Program, 2017: Rural Hospital Closures: January 2010Present. In the Southeast, over 56% of land remains rural (nonmetropolitan) and home to approximately 16 million people, or about 17% percent of the regions population.250 These rural areas are important to the social and economic well-being of the Southeast. U.S. Census Bureau, . Ecological diversity in the Southeast is high,113,114,115,116,117 and southeastern ecosystems and landscapes provide many benefits to society. Trends towards a more urbanized and denser Southeast are expected to continue, creating new climate vulnerabilities. Miller, R., D. Arthur, B. Barami, A. Breck, S. Costa, K. Lewis, K. McCoy, and E. Morrison, 2016: Hampton Roads Climate Impact Quantification Initiative: Baseline Assessment of the Transportation Assets & Overview of Economic Analyses Useful in Quantifying Impacts. before making use of copyrighted material. Smith, T. J., III, M. B. Robblee, H. R. Wanless, and T. W. Doyle, 1994: Mangroves, hurricanes, and lightning strikes: Assessment of Hurricane Andrew suggests an interaction across two differing scales of disturbance. Observed warming since the mid-20th century has been uneven in the Southeast region, with average daily minimum temperatures increasing three times faster than average daily maximum temperatures. Pederson, N., A. W. D'Amato, J. M. Dyer, D. R. Foster, D. Goldblum, J. L. Hart, A. E. Hessl, L. R. Iverson, S. T. Jackson, D. Martin-Benito, B. C. McCarthy, R. W. McEwan, D. J. Mladenoff, A. J. Parker, B. Shuman, and J. W. Williams, 2015: Climate remains an important driver of post-European vegetation change in the eastern United States. Choose from 63 different sets of term:fishing = industry in the coastal plain region flashcards on Quizlet. 1997. Allan, R. P., and B. J. Soden, 2008: Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Duke, N. C., J. M. Kovacs, A. D. Griffiths, L. Preece, D. J. E. Hill, P. van Oosterzee, J. Mackenzie, H. S. Morning, and D. Burrows, 2017: Large-scale dieback of mangroves in Australia's Gulf of Carpentaria: A severe ecosystem response, coincidental with an unusually extreme weather event. From October 15, 2015, deep tropical moisture combined with a slow-moving (stalled) upper-level low pressure system to pump moisture into South Carolinas coastal and interior regions. (See the dark brown counties in Figure 1.). Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, MA, 167 pp. doi: Cavanaugh, K. C., J. D. Parker, S. C. Cook-Patton, I. C. Feller, A. P. Williams, and J. R. Kellner, 2015: Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species' range expansion. Business and Industries. Boon, J. D., 2012: Evidence of sea level acceleration at U.S. and Canadian tide stations, Atlantic Coast, North America. B. Claydon, T. L. Metz, A. L. Gordon, A. M. Landry, D. J. Shaver, J. Blumenthal, L. Collyer, B. J. Godley, A. McGowan, M. J. Witt, C. L. Campbell, C. J. Lagueux, T. L. Bethel, and L. Kenyon, 2017: Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic. 7: Ecosystems). Anderson, D. G., T. G. Bissett, S. J. Yerka, J. J. A. Patz, 2007: Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 US cities. For example, a rural municipality can increase tax rates to benefit local schools. 9: Oceans, KM 1). Larcher, W., 2003: Physiological Plant Ecology: Ecophysiology and Stress Physiology of Functional Groups. An analysis of ecological changes that have occurred in the past can help provide some context for anticipating and preparing for future ecological changes. Detection and attribution of flood events are difficult due to multiple variables that cause flooding. Average global sea level (or global mean sea level; GMSL) has risen about 89 inches since 1880, with about 3 inches of that rise occurring since 1990.51,52 This recent increase in the rate of rise is projected to accelerate in the future due to continuing temperature increases and additional melting of land ice.51 This recent global rate increase, combined with the local effects of vertical land motion (sinking) and oceanographic effects such as changing ocean currents, has caused some areas in the Southeast to experience even higher local rates of sea level rise than the global average.53,54,55,56,57,58,59 Analyses at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauges show as much as 1 to 3 feet of local relative sea level rise in the past 100 years in low-lying areas of the Southeast.54,59 This recent rise in local relative sea level has caused normal high tides to reach critical levels that result in flooding in many coastal areas in the region. Increases in temperatures, water stress, freeze-free days, drought, and wildfire risks, together with changing conditions for invasive species and the movement of diseases, create a number of potential risks for existing agricultural systems (Ch. Can Polyketone (PK) Materials Provide an Alternative to Polyoxymethylene (POM)? USGS Professional Paper 1815. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations in high tide levels are caused by a combination of astronomical factors (sun and moon gravitational attraction) and non-astronomical factors such as geomorphology (landscape of the area), as well as meteorological (weather) conditions. As a result, future generations can expect to experience, interact with, and potentially benefit from natural systems that are much different than those that we see today (Ch. Jackson, S. T., R. S. Webb, K. H. Anderson, J. T. Overpeck, T. Webb III, J. W. Williams, and B. C. S. Hansen, 2000: Vegetation and environment in Eastern North America during the Last Glacial Maximum. Throughout the southeastern United States, the impacts of sea level rise, increasing temperatures, extreme heat events, heavy precipitation, and decreased water availability continue to have numerous consequences for human health, the built environment, and the natural world. Deep-water ports in Morehead City and Wilmington provide rural regions with additional market access. The Southeast is one of the most dynamic regions for forest change on the globe,269 though much of the change owes to intensive rotations of pine production and economic forces that drive frequent conversion between forest and agricultural uses in rural areas.270,271 Climate is expected to have an impact on the regions forests primarily through changes in moisture regimes.272 Species migration westward across the eastern United States in response to changing precipitation patterns has already been noted.273 Drought is likely to alter fire regimes and further interact with species distributions (see Key Message 3). Wiki User. Academic Press, San Diego,. EPA 430R17001. The annual mean projected losses are roughly halved (0.28 billion labor hours) and with a model range from 0.19 to 0.43 billion labor hours lost under RCP4.5 by 2090.35. A., 1997: A History of Florida Citrus Freezes. 17: Complex Systems). Lal, P., J. R. R. Alavalapati, and E. D. Mercer, 2011: Socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural United States. Attaway, J. Many cities across the Southeast are planning for the impacts sea level rise is likely to have on their infrastructure (see Case Study Charleston, South Carolina, Begins Planning and Reinvesting and Key Message 2). Synthesis Report. Rosenzweig, C., W. Solecki, P. Romero-Lankao, S. Mehrotra, S. Dhakal, T. Bowman, and S. Ali Ibrahim, 2015: ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders. In addition, high levels of migration, whether into or out of an area, can lead to unemployment, depending on how businesses grow or adapt to change. Gonzalez, C. G., A. Kaswan, R. Verchick, Y. Huang, N. Jamhour, and S. Bowen, 2016: Climate Change, Resilience, and Fairness: How Nonstructural Adaptation Can Protect and Empower Socially Vulnerable Communities on the Gulf Coast. Uncertainties in the range of potential future changes in multiple and concurrent facets of climate and land-use change also affect our ability to predict changes to natural systems. Luedeling, E., 2012: Climate change impacts on winter chill for temperate fruit and nut production: A review. They are found in the different sub-regions called: Post Oak-Belt, Piney Woods, and the Blackland Prairies. The Coastal Plain Region is usually divided into two sub regions: the Outer Coastal Plain, commonly referred to as the Tidewater; and the Inner Coastal, which is less impacted by the effects of the ocean as it is located further inward. These factors restrict the potential to strongly associate declines in agricultural and forest productivity with the level of potential economic impact. A. Mendelssohn, 2005: Drought, snails, and large-scale die-off of southern U.S. salt marshes. To sustain economic well-being, rural communities must continue to invest in the productivity of unique assets that support economic development. Scott, R., 2017: Gov. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Flood Insurance Program, . A regions uniqueness is based on the availability and productive use of essential assets for production, such as land, labor, and capital. Many southeastern cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change compared to cities in other regions, with expected impacts to infrastructure and human health. Bernatchez, A., and L. Lapointe, 2012: Cooler temperatures favour growth of wild leek (Allium tricoccum), a deciduous forest spring ephemeral. Increases in precipitation and shifts in wind trajectories may reduce future health impacts of ground level ozone in the Southeast,35 but warmer and drier autumns are expected to result in a lengthening of the period of ozone exposure.38 Warmer August temperatures in the Southeast from 1988 to 2011 were associated with increased human sensitivity to ground-level ozone.39. For centuries, people have worked in industries such as fishing, farming, and forestry. The amount of confidence associated with the historical rate of global sea level rise is impacted by the sparsity of tide gauge records and historical proxies as well as different statistical approaches for estimating sea level change. When these cities experience high tide coastal flooding due to perigean tides, the tidewater enters the storm water system, which prevents rainwater from entering storm drains and causes increased impacts from flooding. Stephens, S. L., J. J. Moghaddas, C. Edminster, C. E. Fiedler, S. Haase, M. Harrington, J. E. Keeley, E. E. Knapp, J. D. McIver, K. Metlen, C. N. Skinner, and A. Youngblood, 2009: Fire treatment effects on vegetation structure, fuels, and potential fire severity in western U.S. forests. Cities such as Charleston and Miami have already begun to improve storm water infrastructure and explore natural and nature-based infrastructure design to reduce future flood risk. Inland areas were also impacted by winds and heavy rains with river gauges and high-water marks showing upwards of 26 feet above ground level.100 The winds eventually fell below tropical storm strength near Columbus, Georgia. A wide variety of adaptation options are available, offering opportunities to improve the climate resilience, quality of life, and economy of urban areas.77,300,301,302,303,304. Intra-annual droughts, like the one in 2016, are expected to become more frequent in the future.6 Thus, drought and greater fire activity134 are expected to continue to transform forest ecosystems in the region (see Ch. Where climatic thresholds are crossed, certain ecosystem and landscapes will be transformed by changing winter air temperatures. Wells, E. C. Kansa, S. W. Kansa, K. N. Myers, R. C. DeMuth, and D. A. NOAA RCC, 2017: xmACIS2 [Applied Climate Information System online tool]. Much of the affected region received between 10 and 26 inches of rain over the 4-day event, breaking many all-time precipitation records (Figure 19.12). Historically, coastal ecosystems in the region have adjusted to sea level rise via vertical and/or horizontal movement across the landscape.125,129,200,201 As sea levels rise in the future, some coastal ecosystems will be submerged and converted to open water, and some coastal ecosystems will move inland at the expense of upslope and upriver ecosystems.203,204 Since coastal terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems are highly sensitive to increases in inundation and/or salinity, sea level rise will result in the comparatively rapid conversion of these systems to tidal saline habitats. Regional economic integration depends upon robust market relationships and communications between rural and urban areas. Technological developments (such as a potential shift in transportation modes) will also affect the scope and location of risk within cities. There ishigh confidencethat flood risks willvery likelyincrease in coastal and low-lying regions of the Southeast due to rising sea level and an increase in extreme rainfall events. Day, R. Boumans, and K. Bagstad, 2010: Gaining Ground: Wetlands, Hurricanes and the Economy: The Value of Restoring the Mississippi River Delta. A. Collazo, R. Wershoven, V. Guzmn Hernndez, T. B. Stringell, A. Sanghera, P. B. Richardson, A. C. Broderick, Q. Phillips, M. Calosso, J. Percentage Change in Population of Non-Metropolitan Coastal Counties, 2010-2017. doi: Smee, D. L., J. Kopp, R. E., A. C. Kemp, K. Bittermann, B. P. Horton, J. P. Donnelly, W. R. Gehrels, C. C. Hay, J. X. Mitrovica, E. D. Morrow, and S. Rahmstorf, 2016: Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era. Historically, coastal ecosystems in the region have adjusted to sea level rise by vertical and horizontal movement across the landscape.125,129,200,201 As sea levels rise in the future, some coastal ecosystems will be submerged and converted to open water, and saltwater intrusion will allow salt-tolerant coastal ecosystems to move inland at the expense of upslope and upriver ecosystems.128,202,203,204,205,206,207,208 Where barriers are present (for example, levees and other coastal infrastructure), the potential for landward migration of natural systems will be reduced and certain coastal habitats will be lost (Ch. Allen, C. D., A. K. Macalady, H. Chenchouni, D. Bachelet, N. McDowell, M. Vennetier, T. Kitzberger, A. Rigling, D. D. Breshears, E. H. Hogg, P. Gonzalez, R. Fensham, Z. Zhang, J. Castro, N. Demidova, J.-H. Lim, G. Allard, S. W. Running, A. Semerci, and N. Cobb, 2010: A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Cities across the Southeast are experiencing more and longer summer heat waves. Projected labor hours lost vary by global climate model, time frame, and scenario, with a mean of 0.57 and a model range of 0.340.82 billion labor hours lost each year for RCP8.5 by 2090. Climate trends and possible climate futures show patterns that are already impactingand are projected to further impactrural sectors, from agriculture and forestry to human health and labor productivity. Although the agricultural output has been on the Changing winter temperature extremes, wildfire patterns, sea levels, hurricanes, floods, droughts, and warming ocean temperatures are expected to redistribute species and greatly modify ecosystems (very likely, high confidence). Jane Harrison, North Carolina Sea Grants coastal economist, has published four editions online, including this issue on rural economic development. Since 1990, Mesa color solutions have been delivered with responsiveness and flexibility helping customers meet their end-use requirements with quick turnaround on large or small orders. Ferrario, F., M. W. Beck, C. D. Storlazzi, F. Micheli, C. C. Shepard, and L. Airoldi, 2014: The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation. For example, the distribution of tropical herbivorous fish has been expanding in response to warmer waters, which has resulted in the tropicalization of some temperate marine ecosystems and decreases in the cover of valuable macroalgal plant communities.179 A decrease in the growth of sea turtles in the West Atlantic has been linked to higher ocean temperatures.237 The impacts to coral reef ecosystems have been and are expected to be particularly dire. The precise impacts on cities are difficult to project. Leopold, S., 2017: Ramps now on the to-watch list: Time to ramp up conservation efforts. Stein, B. The Northeast Coastal non-metropolitan area includes Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Dare, Halifax, Hertford, Hyde, Martin, Northampton, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Tyrrell, Warren, and Washington counties. U.S. Census Bureau, , accessed May 17. Without significant adaptation measures, these regions are projected to experience daily high tide flooding by the end of the century (likely, high confidence). Hauer, M. E., J. M. Evans, and D. R. Mishra, 2016: Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States. Generally, more remote places have the lowest median household incomes. | Day, J. W., Jr., D. F. Boesch, E. J. Clairain, G. P. Kemp, S. B. Laska, W. J. Mitsch, K. Orth, H. Mashriqui, D. J. Reed, L. Shabman, C. A. Simenstad, B. J. Streever, R. R. Twilley, C. C. Watson, J. T. Wells, and D. F. Whigham, 2007: Restoration of the Mississippi Delta: Lessons from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Fu, T.-M., Y. Zheng, F. Paulot, J. Mao, and R. M. Yantosca, 2015: Positive but variable sensitivity of August surface ozone to large-scale warming in the southeast United States. White, 2017: Sea-level rise and archaeological site destruction: An example from the southeastern United States using DINAA (Digital Index of North American Archaeology). The Southeast Coastal non-metropolitan area includes Beaufort, Bladen, Carteret, Columbus, Duplin, Greene, Harnett, Lenoir, Robeson, Sampson, Scotland, and Wilson counties. Behr, J. G., R. Diaz, and M. Mitchell, 2016: Building resiliency in response to sea level rise and recurrent flooding: Comprehensive planning in Hampton Roads. Sixty-one percent of major Southeast cities are exhibiting some aspects of worsening heat waves, which is a higher percentage than any other region of the country. Kirkman, L. K., R. J. Mitchell, R. C. Helton, and M. B. Employment in manufacturing bottomed out nationally in 2010, and recovery after the Great Recession has been slow in places that depend on either of these industries. Le Bras, A. Lemonsu, N. Long, M. P. Moine, T. Morel, L. Nolorgues, G. Pigeon, J. L. Salagnac, V. Vigui, and K. Zibouche, 2014: Adapting cities to climate change: A systemic modelling approach. B. C. Jackson, 2017: Ghost reefs: Nautical charts document large spatial scale of coral reef loss over 240 years. Enwright, N. M., K. T. Griffith, and M. J. Osland, 2016: Barriers to and opportunities for landward migration of coastal wetlands with sea-level rise. Many of the people who live here still farm tobacco, corn, wheat and soybeans, As a result, Charleston has developed a Sea Level Rise Strategy that plans for 50 years out based on moderate sea level rise scenarios (Figure 19.10) and that reinvests in infrastructure, develops a response plan, and increases readiness.45 As of 2016, the City of Charleston has spent or set aside $235 million (in 2015 dollars) to complete ongoing drainage improvement projects (Figure 19.9) to prevent current and future flooding. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 75 pp. ), medium consensus, Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, models incomplete, methods emerging, etc. Area > 290.00 km2 (111.97 sq mi) Population > 32,215 (2015 Census) Terrain > Mountainous with narrow Coastal Plain Industries > Agriculture, Trading, Tourism Major Products > Rice, Corn, Fish, Coconut, Vegetables, Pineapple, Poultry, Handicraft, Home-made Food Items People/Language > Tagalog, Bicolano, English Cartwright, J. M., and W. J. Wolfe, 2016: Insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States: A regional synthesis to support biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. There are many possible future wind and cloud cover conditions for the Southeast as well as the potential for continued shifts in land-use patterns, demographics and population geography, and vehicle and power plant emissions standards. The goal: to restore the Rhine and Meuse systems flood plain and allow the restored natural river landscape to safely manage water flow in times of excess capacity. Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, Coastal Fisheries Division, Austin, TX, 20 pp. Already poor regions, including those found in the Southeast, are expected to continue incurring greater losses than elsewhere in the United States. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS), Washington, DC, accessed March 14. NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), Key West, FL, accessed February 27. Summer increases in dengue cases are expected across every state in the Southeast. In coming years, high-amenity and urban-adjacent rural areas that comprise North Carolinas coastal region are likely to continue to be competitive in a global economy, while more remote rural places may require additional investment to thrive. Roughly 52,000 residents applied for disaster relief, and 160,000 homes sustained some type of damage. Mitchell, R. J., Y. Liu, J. J. O'Brien, K. J. Elliott, G. Starr, C. F. Miniat, and J. K. Hiers, 2014: Future climate and fire interactions in the southeastern region of the United States. 0076 . The Tribes experience highlights how success can be achieved when at-risk communities are engaged in the resettlement planning process from the beginning to ensure long-term successful relocation and maintain community integrity.80 It also highlights an opportunity for institutions to evolve in more flexible ways to accommodate the growing number of communities that may need to relocate. While urban areas such as Baton Rouge and Lafayette were hit the hardest, receiving upwards of 30 inches in a few days, coastal locations were also inundated with up to 20 inches of rain. Adaptation, mitigation, and planning efforts are emphasizing co-benefits (positive benefits related to the reduction of greenhouse gases or implementation of adaptation efforts) to help boost the economy while protecting people and infrastructure. EPA, 2017: Multi-model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment. Peachesan important crop in the Southeastrequire an adequate period of cool temperatures, called the chill period, to produce yields that are economically viable. A Special NOAA 20th Anniversary Report. For example, shrimping, oystering, and fishing along the coast are long-standing traditions in the coastal economy that are expected to face substantial challenges. For example, since the end of the last glacial maximum (about 19,000 years agothe most recent period of maximum ice extent),121 forests in the region have been transformed by warming temperatures, sea level rise, and glacial retreat.122,123 Spruce species that were once present in the regions forests have moved northward and have been replaced by oaks and other less cold-tolerant tree species that have expanded from the south.124 And along the coast, freeze-sensitive mangrove forests and other tropical coastal species have been expanding northward and upslope since the last glacial maximum.125,126,127,128,129, In the coming decades and centuries, climate change will continue to transform many ecosystems throughout the Southeast,6,130,131,132,133,134,135 which would affect many of the societal benefits these ecosystems provide. However, this trend in part reflects how rural communities that experience significant population growth often get reclassified as metropolitan themselves. WebAs a low-lying coastal plain, major crops include rice, sugar, coffee, cocoa, coconuts, edible oils, fruit, vegetables, and tobacco. U.S. Terando, A. J., B. Reich, K. Pacifici, J. Costanza, A. McKerrow, and Jaime A. Collazo, 2016: Uncertainty quantification and propagation for projections of extremes in monthly area burned under climate change: A case study in the coastal plain of Georgia, USA. The participants agreed that the identified issues were important and suggested the inclusion of several other topics, including impacts on coastal and rural areas and people, forests, and agriculture.
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