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Not only are you and I contingent, we are highly improbable! By that definition, Ive just proven that you are a miracle. The chances of that turning into another meeting is about 1 in 10. Author and blogger Dr. Ali Binazir did the calculations last spring and decided that the chances of anyone existing are one in 10 2,685,000. Lets not get carried away here; well just deal with the human lineage. That number is not just larger than all of the particles in the universe -- it's larger than all the particles in the universe if each particle were itself a universe. You are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. Then the probability of Mr. Because the existence of you here now on planet earth presupposes another supremely unlikely and utterly undeniable chain of events. Or are we glorious accidents, each and every one? You may quibble with some of the Binazirs assumptions above. Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. They'd be amazed to hear that Chance has been toying with them now for years. Miebakagh Fiberesima from Port Harcourt, Rivers State, NIGERIA. The learned Frenchman put a number on it10 to the power of 50, written as 1050in order to impress upon the common herd that its members are not mathematicians. So the probability of your parents chance meeting resulting in kids is about 1 in 2000. Now imagine that each time the fly comes back from the moon it brings with it a speck of moon dust the size of a grain of sand (lets say 1 mg). Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: one in 10. Love, H, Writer, Mama, Spiritual Warrior @RecovHer, Sharing is Caring! And the chances of that turning into another meeting is about one in 10 also. Our own galaxy, the Milky Way, has as many as 400 billion stars in it and at least 100 billion planets. Think about yourself.You are here becauseYour dad met your mom.Then your dad and mom conceived you.So a particular egg in your momJoined a particular sperm from your dadWhich could only happen because not one of your direct ancestors, going all the way back to the beginning of life itself, died before passing on his or her genesSo what are the chances of you happening?Of you being here? I would call that a personal relationship with God. Those who are brave (foolish?) It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Half of those people, or 200 million, will be of the opposite sex. That's 150,000 generations. Seriously, look around, look up to the sky, take this all in. Let's not get carried away here; we'll just deal with the human lineage. Its the probability of 2 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Then what would be the chance of your particular lineage to have remained unbroken for 150,000 generations? Why? As a comparison, the approximate number of atoms in the known universe is 10. One in 400 trillion vs one in 700 trillion? So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is. Borels Law has since been enlisted by creationists and evolutionists alike to bolster their arguments. Go crazy with those celebrations, new parents to be. First, let's talk about the probability of your parents meeting. Thats just the observable Universe; we havent the faintest idea what is beyond what we can detect with our instruments. If I had 400 trillion pennies, I could probably build a decent-sized penny fortress with it. In a recent talk at TEDx San Francisco, Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author, mentioned that scientists estimate the probability of your being born at about one in 400 trillion. Not only has He always known us; he has known everything each of us would do, for every one of our days has been written in His book before one of them ever came to be. And the chances of that turning into another meeting is about one in 10 also. They look like this , or this, and have to be avoided at all costs. Marcus Aurelius offers wisdom on how to use this fact. If this writer can grasp the concept then any one of those infinite monkeys can. That number is not just larger than all of the particles in the universe its larger than all the particles in the universe if each particle were itself a universe. There is no reason not to be bold, to throw yourself at life with vigor every single day. 3.97 avg rating 549 ratings published 2010 5 editions. Worldwide, there are 2,043 billionaires among 7.4 billion people. You are not here by luck; you are here by the grace and will of God. So beginning with your folks, your odds of you being born come out to 1 in 400,000,000,000,000,000 or 1 in 4 quadrillion. The odds of you existing have been calculated by Dr. Ali Binazir. Binazir concludes that the odds of you being alive are . First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. In other words, when seen in the aggregate, that probability is simply stating that it is very hard to predict _who_ will exist and not that someone will. Visions in Lent: Family Life As a Seen in a Rock Tumbler. Thats a pretty big number, I thought to myself. If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people. But even if you dont believe in that, the science is enough. (This is also known as consulting especially if you show it all in a PowerPoint deck.). So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. Scientists have calculated the odds of a human being born as at least 1 in 400 trillion. HubPages is a registered trademark of The Arena Platform, Inc. Other product and company names shown may be trademarks of their respective owners. Scott and Janice Huse, in their 1997 book The Collapse of Evolution, state that It is very significant to note that mathematicians generally consider that any event with a probability of one chance [in] 10^50 as having a zero probability (i.e. Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. How do you deal with a confirmed bachelor?, 9 Reasons Why Men Lose Interest and What You Can Do About It. Or are we some mysterious combination of impossible and inevitable? Every beginning Is only a sequel, after all, and the book of events is always open halfway through. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people. So to the second question: how accurate is this number? Scripture says. They each roll the dice and they all come up with. So, who better to explain probability theory than someone who is a complete duffer at mathematics? So, it seems fair to say that there are an infinite number of possibilities of any event happening not matter how remote the chance. If you need to flag this entry as abusive. Dr. Binazir is an author and personal change specialist who studied at. A donut with no hole, is a Danish. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: one in 2000. It is like finding out how many angels can stand on a pin-head! xx, Lets be social! They each roll the dice and they all come up with the exact same numberfor example, 550,343,279,001., A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. Dr Ali Binazir, Contributor Author, Happiness Engineer & Personal Growth consultant creating tools for greater wellness & flourishing Jun 16, 2011, 03:58 PM EDT | Updated Aug 16, 2011 This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. decision by design review farnam street; dr ali binazir odds of being born; post mortem fingerprint equipment. The learned professor was actually pulling everyones legs, but Littlewoods Law has been conscripted as proof of a number of strange theories. *wink wink* Well, hello thereBom chicka wow wowits: The chance of every one of your ancestors outrunning dinosaurs, disease, war and pestilence to live to reproductive age and reproduce successfully is one in 10. Let's confine the pool of possible people they could meet to 1/10th of the world's population 20 years go (1/10th of 4 billion = 400 million) so it considers not just the population of the US but that of the places they could have visited. Pretty darn close, for such an unusual calculation. Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age -- going all the way back not just to the first Homo sapiens, first Homo erectus and Homo habilis, but all the way back to the first single-celled organism. Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. Rich E Cunningham from Ontario, Canada on May 14, 2020: Interesting article, guess we are lucky to be here! Previously, I had heard the Buddhist version of the probability of "this precious incarnation." The chances of them talking to one another is 1 in 10. This is the probability of you being born at the time you were born to your particular parents, with your particular genetic make-up. So what's the probability of your being born? Say that over the course of all human existence, the likelihood of any one human offspring to survive childhood and live to reproductive age and have at least one kid is 50:50 -- one in two. The probability of this happening is 635,013,559,600 to one against. We might not all like the cards we were dealt in life, but it is our choice to play what weve been given or to go on blaming our lot which is wanting more power, but giving up any power we already have. But, the odds of every bridge deal are exactly the same. That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, "The answer is 500 squintillion," we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. Well surely reply you within 48 hours. How fast does a laden fly fly? Mathematician Professor John Littlewood of Cambridge University defined a miracle as an event happening with a frequency of one in a million. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. Then, I hope and believe, that He has written my name on the palm of His hand, so whenever He looks at His hand, He thinks of me. It is approximately 1 in 102,685,000 according to Dr. Ali Binazir, in a publication distributed by Huffington Post. If even once the wrong sperm met the wrong egg, you would not be sitting here noodling online reading fascinating articles like this one. Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. I believe The Source who I call God loves us infinitely, unimaginably. The probability that you came about is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the water -- into the middle of that life preserver. Fortunes were lost as players bet huge amounts on red in the erroneous belief that the law of probabilities dictated the ball would not drop on black again. The chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is about 1 in 10. Author and blogger Dr. Ali Binazir did the calculations last spring and decided that the chances of anyone existing are one in 102,685,000. Because the existence of you here now on planet earth presupposes another supremely unlikely and utterly undeniable chain of events. Osterholm is one of the world's foremost public health professionals, having served for 40 years on the frontlines of such diseases as Ebola, SARS, MERS, Zika and everything else. Lets say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause dont count. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. A rational approach acknowledges that incredibly low probabilities is not the same as zero probability. That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. The odds of red or black are 50:50 with each spin of the wheel. First, your parents have to meet, then stay together long enough to reproduce, then conceive you at the exact right time so that the right egg drops (your mother has 100,000 in her lifetime), then the right sperm must make it in (your father produces 4 trillion during the years you could be born). Lets say a third of those (4 trillion or 4 x 10, So, the chance of your particular chain of ancestors having remained unbroken for all that time would be 1 in 2, To account for all 150,000 generations, we raise 400 quadrillion to the 150,000, Thus, the probability of your existing at all is about 1 in 10, This video makes a moving point, but it attributes our existence to luck. Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age going all the way back not just to the first Homo sapiens, first Homo erectus and Homo habilis, but all the way back to the first single-celled organism. He concluded that the chances of a turtle sticking its head out in the middle of the life preserver was about one in 700 trillion. This is also true of their parents, and so on till the beginning of time. 2023 The Arena Media Brands, LLC and respective content providers on this website. But lets make it longer. A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. Be True to YOU (there is no one else like you, if there was they would have been born and not you), Odds of Being Born Infographic by Designer Sofya Yampolsky. The odds of becoming a millionaire in America are between 6.4% to 22.3% according to data from the Federal Reserve Boards Survey of Consumer Finances. You have lived your life. Now let's say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. What Does Jesus Mean When He Says We Must Be Salted with Fire. Similarly, Dr. Ali Binazir, in his article for The Huffington Post, has a clever calculation that resulted in his estimate that the probability of being born is 1 in 10 2,685,000 . This button displays the currently selected search type. They agree to within a factor of two! And I note that it is an unladen fly that moves at about 4 mph. Then what would be the chance of your particular lineage to have remained unbroken for 150,000 generations? 2019 Ali Binazir, M.D., M.Phil, All Rights Reserved. or one in 6.821014, or about 1 in 700 trillion. A fertile woman has about 100,000 viable eggs while a man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. But, once we are born, we have an incredible opportunity to create our future . To say that someone or something is contingent is to say that the existence of same is not inevitable but rather can only come about based on a number of previous things being true in a chain of being or causality. This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. Theologically, of course, we are no accident; we do not exist by happenstance. It turns out that when taking into account the astonishing number of possibilities of parents meeting, grandparents meeting before them, and so on going back generations, and then adding the vast number of sperm and ova in possible combinations over decades of the marital act in all those generations, the odds of me existing just as I do are about 1 in 10. Yes, youre here all right, and math can barely account for your existence, so tiny are the odds; but God has overseen every detail and knew you long before you were born. This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. So let's say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million, or one in 20,000. The chances of that turning into another meeting is about 1 in 10. Its almost too big to process, just know that the odds that you exist at all are basically zero. A fertile woman has 100,000 viable eggs on average. Please pass this post along. That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, "The answer is 500 squintillion," we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. Step 3. Your email address will not be published. A fertile woman has 100,000 viable eggs on average. Moreover, the second shot would not necessary run into the red. For the curious, that is expressed as one in 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. This alone should boost any lingering low self-esteem quite a bit. But let's think about this some more. What are the odds of that? What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? Step 1. Well, the right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents, too. The scientists and Buddhists seem to agree. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. In a 2011 HuffPost article, he set about calculating the likelihood of each of us being born. On one try. Otherwise they'd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. "That's a pretty big number," I thought to myself. If Borels Law is the immutable truth and the creationists are wrong, you cant exist. Lets confine the pool of possible people they could meet to 1/10 of the worlds population twenty years go (one tenth of 4 billion = 400 million) so it considers not just the population of the US but that of the places they could have visited.

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